Arkansas Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the 2023 season

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Arkansas. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

Previously: Alabama

* * * * * * *

That wasn’t what I had in mind for America’s team in 2022.

A 6-6 regular season saw a mass personnel exodus at season’s end. The honeymoon phase of the Sam Pittman era ended abruptly and a season that began with New Year’s 6 bowl hopes ended with a Liberty Bowl victory.

It was a setback season, by any stretch. The Hogs didn’t beat anyone that had a winning record in SEC play. Two respected coordinators came into question and some significant transfer portal departures from mainstays like Jalen Catalon, Trey Knox and Jordan Domineck led to the first real dip in Pittman’s approval rating.

But it wasn’t all negative.

KJ Jefferson took the next step as a passer and Rocket Sanders became Arkansas’ best back since Darren McFadden. Both are back to do the heavy lifting for a team that’s hoping to return to SEC West relevance.

Does that happen? And will the jukebox be cranked up to 11?

Here’s what’ll determine that:

Briles flirted with the idea of leaving several times and finally, flirtation turned into a new relationship. He’s off to TCU after an up-and-down final season in Fayetteville. Pittman immediately decided to bring Enos back to Arkansas. The expectation is that Enos will operate a much more pass-heavy attack than Briles did the past 2 years when the Hogs ranked in the top 10 in rushing attempts per game, but not in the top 100 in passing attempts per game.

Enos, on the other hand, led a Maryland passing attack that ranked No. 16 in attempts/game in 2021 and No. 41 in 2022. And even that frustrating 2019 Miami offense that he ran ranked No. 30 in touchdown passes (27).

It’s going to be a different offense. That much we know. The question is if Arkansas has the personnel to execute it.

Jefferson basically matched his 2021 passing production, but did so in 2 fewer games. Without Treylon Burks, I thought he took another step. For the second consecutive year, he was in the top 10 in FBS in quarterback rating. And obviously, he’s still a nightmare to bring down with his legs. Keeping him healthy is essential. The hope is that he takes less hits operating this offense, which will even require him to take some snaps from under center. That’ll ideally cut down on the hits he takes when he isn’t the ball-carrier on an RPO.

This offense isn’t going to operate with the tempo that we’re used to seeing, though Enos did run an offense who ranked in the top 1/3 of FBS in total plays each of the past 2 seasons. What’ll determine its potential is if Jefferson can make those post-snap reads and develop a rapport with a mostly new group of pass-catchers.

Fortunately, he does have a nice complement behind him …

Sanders played like an All-American in 2022, which was huge because if he didn’t, I’m not sure the Hogs would’ve played in a bowl game with an opportunity to reach win No. 7. He had the most scrimmage yards in the SEC (1,714) and the most of any Arkansas player since 2007 McFadden.

Here’s the list of Power 5 running backs who had 200 carries, 6 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns:

And how many of those guys are back in 2023? One. It’s Sanders. He is not just a byproduct of the system, which is why he’ll still have plenty of success in the new offense. Also remember that Beaux Limmer and Brady Latham are back to solidify the middle of that interior offensive line.

Pittman said at SEC Media Days that Sanders was up to a few pounds but that he was “running faster than ever” and even at 242 at the start of fall camp, Pittman added that “there’s no fat there.” It makes sense that Sanders would tack on a little weight because if the expectation is there’ll be less tempo, he could clearly get away with not being as lean. Remember, he was once around 205 when he got to Arkansas, and last season was his first as a full-time featured back.

A pre-Draft version of Rocket could absolutely launch into a new orbit.

I put “pass defense” in air quotes because when you’re dead last in FBS in that category, yeah, we can question that. Nobody in America allowed more 20-yard passes than Arkansas, and Barry Odom’s defense allowed 4 more 30-yard completions (32) than the next-closest team.

It’s ironic because Arkansas finally had the pass rush that it was desperately lacking with 1-and-done All-SEC linebacker Drew Sanders. But it was a disaster on the back end basically from the moment that Catalon went down in the season-opener. It doesn’t help that the Hogs’ top 4 defensive players are gone (2 via transfer, 2 to the NFL) and the unit ranks No. 96 in percentage of returning production.

Odom left for UNLV and Williams came aboard after an impressive run as Gus Malzahn’s defensive coordinator at UCF. The plan is to have a variety of fronts, and they’ll take more chances. Unique blitzes will be needed, especially for a group with some questions at the pass-rusher spots. Versatile Baylor transfer Al Walcott will help with that. Even with that aggressive approach, Williams’ UCF defenses still only allowed 8 40-yard passes the past 2 years. Compare that to 24 that Arkansas surrendered in that stretch.

Williams has to avoid spots where safeties are getting gashed over the top. Period. Arkansas won’t take that next step if the entire defense is predicated on 2-3 pass-rushers getting home. Williams will be a defining hire of Pittman’s time at Arkansas.

It’s ideal that with new schemes on both sides of the ball, Arkansas gets an FCS opponent in Week 1, unlike last year when Cincinnati was months removed from a Playoff berth. And unlike the meeting with last year’s FCS foe, Bobby Petrino’s Missouri State, this one is over well before the 4th quarter.

Remember when I said that schedule started favorably? Kent State won 5 games, it has first-year head coach and it ranks dead last in percentage of returning production. We’ll get some reminders of that in this one.

Never ever sleep on BYU, but man, it’s hard to imagine a different script than last year when Arkansas piled on 644 yards in a 52-point showing in Provo. Jefferson was at the peak of his powers. Once again, Jefferson and the Hogs run wild against BYU. He outduels the well-traveled Kedon Slovis in another high-scoring Arkansas victory.

All the good vibes about the new Arkansas offense come to a screeching halt in Baton Rouge. It’s a rare instance in which the Hogs don’t have that interior offensive line advantage against LSU’s loaded front 7. Harold Perkins owns the state of Arkansas after last year’s “flu game.” The question is if Maason Smith will split ownership this time. LSU controls the line of scrimmage on both sides and takes advantage of the Hogs’ revamped secondary with that loaded group of pass-catchers.

That Jefferson fumble on the goal line against A&M changed the trajectory of Arkansas’ season. That was the difference in the matchup in 2022. What’s’ the difference this year? The pressure that A&M can finally put on an opposing secondary with Robert Patrick Petrino. Scheme will matter, but so will having an extremely deep group of pass-catchers to help the emerging QB Conner Weigman. Petrino kept Arkansas on its heels with Missouri State’s roster last year. I imagine he’ll be able to even better things running the A&M offense against his former team.

A desperate Arkansas team shows up in Oxford. It’s as simple as that. During the 3 years of Pittman-Lane Kiffin matchups, these have somewhat quietly been wildly entertaining games with big plays galore. Ole Miss looks like a team that’s gassed after the LSU victory, and that’s a bad recipe for trying to stop Sanders and Jefferson. Kiffin knows that all too well. Sanders had 261 scrimmage yards against his defense last year. Then again, Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans both eclipsed the 200-yard mark for Ole Miss. I mean, this one had nearly 800 rushing yards. That doesn’t quite happen this time, but just like last year’s frigid day of zero tackling in Fayetteville, Arkansas’ ground game does the heavy lifting in a win.

This will be the point in Arkansas’ season in which it wished it had a true alpha dog No. 1 receiver to take some pressure off Jefferson. But nobody who lines up across from Kool-Aid McKinstry and the Tide secondary can break free. On the other side of the ball, WR Malik Benson has the breakout game that Alabama has been waiting for. It leads to a continuation of the SEC’s longest annual rivalry winning streak, which will be at 17 by game’s end.

In a battle of experienced, prolific quarterbacks in new schemes, we get a shootout. Both teams take to the air in a fun, back-and-forth noon game on SEC Network. Jefferson is so dialed in that he’s throwing first-read jump balls to big-bodied transfers Andrew Armstrong and Tyrone Broden in single coverage. Without a lockdown corner like Emmanuel Forbes to step in, Mississippi State struggles to stop the bleeding in a 38-35 Arkansas win.

This has the makings of a big Ricky Pearsall day. I’m not sure that Arkansas and its transfer-heavy secondary will have an answer for Florida’s talented receiver. Arkansas jumps out to a fast start against a Florida squad that looks a bit fatigued coming off the Georgia game, but the adjustments of Gators DC Austin Armstrong prove to be the difference. The Hogs fail to clinch bowl eligibility and Florida gets a much needed bounce-back win.

This is a bad time of year to have to face Jefferson and Sanders. It’ll probably be a brisk day wherein Auburn’s defensive depth isn’t at ideal levels, and the Hogs take advantage of that. But it’s actually Rashod Dubinion who makes the game-breaking plays to put this one away. Freeze, who beat Arkansas at Liberty last year, comes up short in Fayetteville.

After the aforementioned loss to Liberty and the close call against FCS Missouri State, Arkansas shouldn’t take any game lightly in 2023, especially against a former national coach of the year in Mike MacIntyre. But against a defense that struggled mightily in 2023, Arkansas airs it out in a comfortable home victory.

I’ll call my shot and say that Trajan Jeffcoat has 2 sacks against his former team. I’ll call another shot and say that Arkansas treats this as a Senior Day of sorts for Jefferson and Sanders, both whom could return in 2024, but barring injury, will likely be off to the NFL at season’s end. Much like when Treylon Burks got an ideal sendoff 2 years ago against Mizzou, the same plays out for Jefferson and Sanders. The Battle Line Rivalry goes to the home team for the 4th consecutive year.

Improving by multiple regular-season wins would be a nice way for Pittman to fend off any potential hot-seat discussions in November. Staying afloat in the West is easier said than done. In this scenario, Jefferson is healthy. If he’s not, it’s fair to question how bad things could get. Fortunately for him, Enos’ offense should do a nice job of keeping him upright while allowing him to develop as a passer.

Arkansas’ defense has major questions. It’s a pretty significant overhaul, which it needed. Can it at least flirt with mediocrity? I believe it will. It won’t be one of the better groups in the SEC, but it shouldn’t be a complete liability, either.

Having a potential 9th win on the table in a Florida bowl game would feel like a “back on track” season for the Hogs.

Expect a bit more music on the jukebox in 2023.

You must be logged in to post a comment. Please sign in or register

“Week 11: vs. Auburn (W)”

Arky lost to Liberty with a much less talented team. I’m not Hugh Freeze losing this game.

Auburn isn’t Liberty. W for Arkansas that week.

TAM isn’t in the SEC. Win for the SEC.

You are pretty stupid aren’t you?

“Auburn isn’t Liberty. ”

Who coached at Liberty last year, ma’am?

Liberty had better personnel

“Liberty had better personnel”

I feel sorry for your inbred parents.

How ’bout Arky beating both aTm and AU, ya’ll both suck.

SicEm

I’m so sorry your brother got you pregnant again.

Well KJ was hurt and never should’ve played that game. If you watched it you would see why they lost and with a healthy KJ that game wouldn’t have been close. Also you can’t compare 2 completely different scenarios from 2 completely different seasons.

If Arky played Auburn in September I might pick them because of KJ and Sanders. I think Auburn is going to be rolling by November though. The defensive depth is a lot better than these SDS writers keep pretending.

Arky has 6 SEC games in a row before they get to AU. Arky will be banged up.

Arkansas gets penciled a win vs. Missouri every year and it almost never happens. They beat Auburn and Ole Miss but lose to Florida? Get the hell out of here.

Ya it feels like these predictions are more like random scenario brainstorming sessions rather than “crystal ball” predictions. That being said, it’s also boring when season predictions just go along current better odds.

Arky is not beating AU and Ole Miss.

I think the same thing was uttered by many last season.

Last season is not this season, ma’am.

In 2021, O’Gara predicted that Texas A&M would beat Alabama and lose to Arkansas. He was roasted for it in the comments section for weeks…. until it happened.

Then lots of folks suddenly pretended they saw it coming too.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

This years Arkansas defense is much much better. We are now 2 deep at every position so in the second half it won’t look like we’re running lead boots. This is Pittmans best team since he’s been at Arkansas!

Did you look at Arky’s schedule? LSU, TAM, Ole Miss, Al, MS State, UF and AU all in a row.

It will be a relief for the Hogs to finish that stretch with a cupcake.

It’ll be nice once you’re herpes clears up.

lol…gottem’

It’s true though…Auburn just isn’t very good

I mean seriously…at what point did anyone look at the mess that was Auburn last year and say “You know, if they only had a sort of upper mid tier coach, they’d be right in this thing?

““You know, if they only had a sort of upper mid tier coach, they’d be right in this thing?”

Kirby and Saban had a hard time beating that “upper mid tier coach”, ma’am.

He’s 1-0 against Kirby.

“It’s true though…Auburn just isn’t very good”

And that is changing, inbred hick. You obviously haven’t been paying attention.

BuT AuBurn wAS Gewd in 2004….

-Ron’s argument from another article

Yeah, clearly Freeze is bettedr than Kirby because he got him his first year before all of the h00ker stuff broke. I’ve seen the error of my ways. Or not. He’s mid. Jim Donnan beat Spurrier too. He wan’t even mid.

“-Ron’s argument from another article”

You’re illiterate, stupid and bad with insults.

Try harder, ma’am.

“Booby Petrino revolutionized the SEC with Ryan Mallet”

Dhenry2013 argument from the other day.

Pittman is a hoot! Really like him! Arky will be good this year I believe. They will be hard for anybody to beat.

Arkansas beats A&M! The defense will be improved. The D line will cause the Aggies big issues.

Arkansas lost 4 different players in the secondary last year due to season ending injuries after already losing two starters, Joe Foucha and Gregory Brooks transfered and started for LSU prior to 2022 season. We had two freshmen receivers asked to move to Corner to make up the depth. The fact that we had no secondary and were still competitive in the SEC says a lot about this offense. The transfer portal has been a blessing for Arkansas secondary this offseason and will be much improved.

I agree with your crystal ball with the exception that Arkansas beats Florida in the swamp after coming off a bye week and Florida getting their butt’s kicked by Georgia the week prior.

If the offensive line can keep KJ upright and make lanes for the stable of talented RB’s, the hogs will be sneaky good.

“This has the makings of a big Ricky Pearsall day.”

I’m beginning to believe Connor and others at SDS are schizo. Who exactly is going to get ALL those great passes thrown to Pearsall?

Inquiring minds want to know.

“The Battle Line Rivalry goes to the home team for the 4th consecutive year.” HUH?? Mizzou has beaten Arky 6 of the last 7.

Meaning the home team has won the last 3 match ups.

Math is hard.

4-4 is gonna be tough with four straight tough road games. Hogs will likely be the underdog in each. With other loseable games on the schedule, I can’t see 4-4 . 3-5 maybe.

I hope I’m wrong cuz I love Coach Sam

“I hope I’m wrong cuz I love Coach Sam”

Yes, we know you love men, unclesuxnutz. You don’t have to keep talking about it.

You are truly pathetic. I honestly feel sorry for you. I hope your life gets better cuz obviously it sux right now when this forum is your home 24/7. Every day and night you have one hand on the keyboard with the other in your pants. Does Mom know you haven’t done your homework yet?

“You are truly pathetic. I honestly feel sorry for you. ”

So…am I supposed to care?

RonMexico1, Please grow up or get off the threads. Every year I see your name attached to stupid putdowns to others. Your comments don’t even support a team, just degrading others for no reason. What is your point of posting negatively to others all of the time? I know I am teeing you up to say something about me jerking off to pictures of my mother or father so go right ahead. Let’s see what kind of immature creativity you have when called out.

“I know I am teeing you up to say something about me jerking off to pictures of my mother or father so go right ahead. ”

Do you?

Ronny What is it with your weird obsession with gay s ex? That’s your go to insult so you must be speaking from experience.Strange. I would have thought you were more into goats. You know with your animal husbandry Auburn degree that’s stapled to your forehead.

“That’s your go to insult ”

Back up that statement, suxnutz.

“You know with your animal husbandry Auburn degree ”

What’s really funny is that you didn’t graduate from UGA.

One of these days, I’m going to read these comments and see that the Ol’ shut-in himself, Diabeetus Ronnie isn’t posting here anymore… And I’ll think of that scene in “Seven” with the morbidly obese fat man, face down in a bowl of moldy spaghetti and never think of him again.

There’s not a ton SEC fans agree on but we can all agree that RonMexico is flat out annoying

This wound be a fantastic year for Arkansas but 7-5 is more likely and that would still be a good season. I don’t see them beating Ole Miss and Auburn won’t be a pushover.

Two things are likely true here: Hogs aren’t better than 9-3 or worse than 6-6, and RonnieM is really Connor throwing sand in our vaseline just for kicks. It just makes sense.

Y’all gotta give ol’Ronnie a little slack, he’s a little depressed that he didn’t make the cut for “ My 600-lb Life” and that’s sent him into a depressing cycle of self hatred that even eating his way out of bathtub of instant chocolate puddin’ doesn’t tickle his inner goatse like it used too.