Mississippi State Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the 2023 season

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Mississippi State. We’ll stay with the SEC West all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every SEC East team.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU

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For many, Mike Leach’s death probably hasn’t sank in. Not yet. Not even during a bowl game in which there were several tributes to the late Mississippi State head coach did it truly feel like he was gone.

Leach wasn’t just one of the sport’s best personalities ever. He was also someone who was in the midst of rebuilding his 3rd Power 5 program. The Pirate steadied the ship and kept the Bulldogs afloat in 2022 when it felt like the season could’ve capsized in mid-October.

Now, though, Zach Arnett is the captain. Early returns on that have been promising. A defensive-fueled bowl game victory earned the Bulldogs their first AP Top 25 finish since 2017. Arnett got to hire his own staff, which should serve as a reminder that he’s not an interim coach.

At the same time, Arnett would be the first to admit that his résumé as a Power 5 head coach is atypical having only coached at 2 schools. Just 36, he’s the 2nd-youngest coach in Power 5 and he’s the SEC’s youngest head coach since Lane Kiffin at Tennessee in 2009. Arnett is well aware of the position he’s in and the unfortunate sequence of events that put him in this spot.

But 3 years leading the backbone of Mississippi State during Leach’s time has Arnett ready to take this on. So, what does it mean for the Bulldogs?

Let’s dig into the 2023 Crystal Ball:

For my money, Rogers switching from the 1-of-1 Leach Air Raid to Kevin Barbay’s more pro-style offense is one of the most interesting storylines in the SEC this season. Rarely do we see someone as accomplished as Rogers make such a dramatic mid-career scheme shift. Texas Tech stuck with the Air Raid after Leach’s awkward exit and Washington State had a new starting quarterback following his move to Starkville.

Rogers has a unique opportunity to shed the notion that he was a “system” quarterback. It’s a strange thing to say about someone who is just 2,478 passing yards from becoming the SEC’s all-time leader, but questions remain. Rogers has the ability to throw it deep, but how will that look for someone with 5 completions of 50 yards in 1,639 career pass attempts? Can he still get into a rhythm in an offense that doesn’t average 50 pass attempts per game? How will he handle throwing against more man coverage?

These are all questions that’ll be answered with OC Kevin Barbay. At Appalachian State in 2022, Barbay’s offense averaged 40 rushing attempts and 30 passes per game. His squad ranked in the top 25 in yards per carry (5.2) and yards per pass (8.4). That efficiency was a major reason he stood out to Arnett during the interview process to find Mississippi State’s new offensive scheme.

We’re going to see Rogers occasionally line up under center and have traditional handoffs. He’ll be tasked with throwing to the tight end, which wasn’t a position on the roster during the Leach days. That could come with some growing pains.

Alternatively? Rogers becomes a more efficient player and years of throwing through tight windows into zone coverage allows him to seamlessly transition to Barbay’s offense.

Either way, a telling year is in store for the SEC’s active leader in passing yards.

Marks is going to — wait for it — actually get to operate like a true running back. Stunning, I know. To be fair, Marks still ranked No. 13 in the SEC in scrimmage touches. Unfortunately for him, a good chunk of those were swing passes wherein he didn’t have a whole lot of room to operate. In the rare instances that he got to operate between the tackles in the Leach offense, Marks showed plenty of potential.

With Barbay, Marks’ role is also about to change significantly. Will he become a bell-cow back? Probably not in a traditional sense. At App State in 2022, 4 running backs had between 76-101 carries. Combined, they had 38 catches. Marks had 48, and he shared those duties with Dillon Johnson, who had an awkward exit to Washington.

There’s room for Marks to be something that the Bulldogs really haven’t had since 2019 Kylin Hill. That is, a dynamic running back who makes defenses respect the ground game.

The bad news is pretty obvious. Arnett’s defense has a ton of production to replace. It ranks No. 118 in percentage of returning production after it was loaded with veterans who had multiple years in the system. Lockdown corner Emmanuel Forbes was the No. 16 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and there are major questions in the secondary and on the defensive line.

But here’s the good news. Linebackers Jett Johnson and Nathaniel “Bookie” Watson are back. They finished No. 1 and No. 2 in the SEC in tackles. They’re both entering Year 6 of college and Year 4 in the Arnett defense. That should be a nice way to overcome some of that inexperience.

It’ll also help that the Bulldogs’ new defensive coordinator is Matt Brock, who has been on Arnett’s staff since he arrived in Starkville in 2020. Brock got defensive play-calling duties in the bowl game and impressed Arnett enough to retain those in 2023.

If Arnett can simply repeat last year’s defensive numbers — the Bulldogs were No. 41 in FBS against the run, No. 42 against the pass and No. 20 in opposing QB rating — that would be a huge Year 1 victory.

In an attempt to get Rogers some reps in the new offense, Mississippi State pays tribute to Leach by airing it out in the first half. But with Barbay at the controls, Zavion Thomas and Lideatrick Griffin both get loose for long touchdowns for an easy win in Arnett’s home debut.

Arizona had no answer for the Bulldogs, or really anyone, in 2022. A transfer portal-heavy defense will be on its heels against Rogers in Starkville. Mississippi State even gets a passing touchdown to a … tight end? Yep. Arizona makes things interesting late, but Marks and the rushing attack puts the game on ice.

Prior to 2022, the road team had won 3 straight in this matchup. That streak ended last year only because LSU overcame a 4th-quarter deficit. But this is where we really see LSU’s loaded group of pass-catchers take flight. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. take turns scoring touchdowns on a Bulldogs secondary still searching for its Forbes replacement as that ball-hawking corner. LSU pulls out a gritty road win to spoil Arnett’s SEC debut.

Consider this a reminder of why this conference can be so tough to predict. The last time South Carolina stepped into Williams-Brice Stadium against an SEC opponent, Tennessee happened. But 10 months after the Gamecocks shocked the college football world, it can’t muster that same offensive mojo. Watson and Jalen Crumedy stuff the developing South Carolina ground game and Spencer Rattler forces too many throws in obvious passing situations. A 3-turnover day is the difference in a huge Mississippi State road victory.

Here’s something: Did you know that the last Mississippi State quarterback to throw a touchdown pass against Alabama was Dak Prescott in 2014? True story. Another true story? Three different offensive-minded Bulldogs coaches — including the one with the most pass-heavy offense in the sport — have struggled immensely against Alabama during that stretch. Only 1 of those past 8 games saw Mississippi State hit 10 points. That trend continues.

Unlike the previous few weeks, Mississippi State pounces on an opportunity to lean on the ground game. An offensive line with 4 returning starters flexes its muscles and Marks hits the century mark before halftime in a comfortable bounce-back win.

In a battle of experienced, prolific quarterbacks in new schemes, we get a shootout. Both teams take to the air in a fun, back-and-forth noon game on SEC Network. KJ Jefferson is so dialed in that he’s throwing first-read jump balls to big-bodied transfers Andrew Armstrong and Tyrone Broden in single coverage. Mississippi State struggles to stop the bleeding in a 38-35 Arkansas win.

Hugh Freeze knows a thing or two about beating Mississippi State. He did it 3 times at Ole Miss, though times have changed since the days he coached in the Egg Bowl, including the team Freeze is leading. Freeze’s first SEC victory at Auburn is the byproduct of a rare multi-interception day from Rogers. Nehemiah Pritchett takes one of them back to the house to ignite the home crowd and give the struggling Auburn offense some life. Payton Thorne does the rest and a missed Mississippi State game-tying field goal attempt in the closing seconds gives Auburn a 31-28 victory.

In what turns into a defining time of Arnett’s first season, he rallies the troops for their first victory in nearly a month. For the second time in 3 seasons, Devin Leary can’t produce scoring drives in Starkville. Whether it’s dropped passes or penalties, Kentucky’s offense sputters and Mississippi State’s defense delivers its best home performance of the year. Decamerion Richardson picks off 2 Leary passes and sets up a pair of Mississippi State touchdowns. For the 8th consecutive year, the home team wins this matchup.

Rogers carved up A&M each of the past 2 seasons, albeit in a different offense. But this time, Mississippi State keeps the Aggies off the field with the much improved ground attack. In addition to Marks, Simeon Price gets a significant workload. Instead of a favorable home matchup at Kyle Field, the day brings Aggies DC DJ Durkin’s future into question.

Yes, this is the day. This is the day that Rogers passes Aaron Murray and becomes the SEC’s all-time leading passer. In front of the home crown, Rogers is celebrated in a blowout Bulldogs victory.

Mississippi State showed last year in Oxford that it could contain Quinshon Judkins. It was 1 of 2 SEC games in which Judkins didn’t hit the century mark, and it was 1 of 3 games all year in which he didn’t have at least 1 run of 20 yards. I wonder about the heart and soul of Ole Miss’ offense being close to 100% at this point of the season. I wonder less about an inexperienced Mississippi State defense getting the reps it needs to shed that notion by November. Arnett picks up his first Egg Bowl win in a defensive-fueled 17-14 rock fight.

If you don’t think repeating an 8-win regular season would be an impressive Year 1 for Arnett, I’ve got news for you. It would put him in the SEC Coach of the Year discussion. If Mississippi State wins those road games at South Carolina and Texas A&M, it changes the conversation completely.

Having a potential 9th win up for grabs in another Florida bowl game would leave the door open for Mississippi State to log consecutive Top 25 seasons for the first time since the Jackie Sherrill days in 1999-00. Think about that. Dan Mullen couldn’t even pull that off in consecutive years.

Arnett has an uphill climb in Year 1. It could be littered with plenty of potholes, especially if that projected midseason losing streak hits.

But considering the circumstances, one can do a whole lot worse in the first year replacing a legend.

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Interesting. This Miss ST team might be the biggest unknown of all SEC Teams this year, which is weird to say considering they are bringing back an elite QB and just about all the Defense. The question is how does Arnett do in his first year and the offense do in a slightly different scheme. The @ SC game looks like a loss to me and so does @ AM. Do they upset LSU? I think they just might beat Barn, Miss ST should have just a bit more on D

I was thinking along the same lines in terms of defensive continuity, but Connor makes a good point about MSU returning very little of their defensive production:

“Arnett’s defense has a ton of production to replace. It ranks No. 118 in percentage of returning production after it was loaded with veterans who had multiple years in the system. ”

The younger guys being in the same system will help, even thought they may not have played a lot of minutes last year. Still like you said, a lot of unknowns. Can’t wait to see Rogers play, though. I expect him to adjust very well.

I think you missed the point where he said they rank 118 in returning defense production.

Agreed, I completely overlooked the 118, ouch.

I think you’re missing the point. Stats without context is what he is saying.1. Everything that player do on D isnt recorded by stats. Mississippi State has more returning on both sides of the field than anyone else in the SEC. Some of them started partially because injury not getting eyes popping stats and some sould have gotten more time because they were just that good. The only position thats questionable is safety. Also, saying the defense is ranked 118th just means they didn’t do good job researching the team. An example would beCrumedy a 4 year starter missed 8 game that didnt have big stats last year because he didn’t play much because He was hurt. But was a problem for offenses when he did play. This is called sticker helmet analysis. The sticker on the side of the helmet tell you how good a team is. Lol

Gig ‘em beat me to the punch

The article says that with exception of two veteran linebackers, they are replacing the whole defense

hy

I have them 6th in the West, just above Auburn. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they finish last. They are practically starting over.

Ya and I don’t see them winning the egg bowl either. Kiffin will go 3-1 in that game.

I have them dropping @USC and @A&M. 6-6 isn’t terrible considering the drastic switch in offense and for a first time HC.

Other than Wheat and Forbes, there isn’t anyone missing from last season’s defense who can’t be replaced. DT Jalen Crumedy missed like 8 games last year due to injury. Sure State is missing a lot of production, but the guys returning have A LOT of SEC starts under their belts.

This ^

Also, don’t underestimate will Rogers.

I don’t know, I’m thinking 5-7

“Hugh Freeze knows a thing or two about beating Mississippi State. He did it 3 times at Ole Miss”

Coach Freeze also beat Saban twice but it doesn’t mean anything right now.

Nov 25, ’23 is just around the corner…

Miss Terry be letting Nick know, if he wants to beat their friend, his offensive line will need to block better than they did in the 2021 game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, because if Freeze gets 7 sacks and 11 tackles for a loss, he will beat Saban thrice, his first as Auburn’s coach.

sunk

The majority of State fans I know think 5-7 is more likely than 8-4. Too many unknowns and changes from last year. We shall see.

You should meet some better State fans, yikes.

@omrebs, ha yeh, ok. I’m sure you’ve consulted many State fans. I dont know what om fans are predicting for om since I don’t talk to any of them because they’re all *@660+s

I’m telling the truth. Most State fans I know aren’t too high on Arnett. I’m predicting 7-5 for Ole Miss, by the way.

Well, you’re sticking to it and I won’t question it, but that sounds like very few State fans I know. In any case, 7-5 is a healthy pick, IMHO. Both Thate and Ole P! $$ could go anywhere from 6-6 to 9-3, dare I say even 10…ehh, I’ll back off that ’til next year. But MY HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED.

Spencer Rattler will muster up enough offensive mojo to defeat MSU at home. MSU will be Rattler’s third Williams-Brice Stadium game of the 2023 year; he’ll be nicely settled in by then.

Hopefully, Rattler doesn’t intentionally get hurt, for being a nuisance, in Georgia’s SEC home opener with South Carolina; Marvin Harrison Jr. would be the reason Shane Beamer should be concerned about such a thing happening.

Stoops still needs a road win in the West. The home team always wins in this series, but this would be the year and last chance to change that for the Cats.

Sorry, don’t see State beating SC or A&M. 118th in defense against those two teams is their undoing. It’ll be big days for Rattler and Weigman/Stewart. Still, losing those two games with a new HC and everything they have been through in the last year isn’t a bad showing. I see next year being a good one for State.

Waitaminit! Back-to-back Top 25 seasons?

This can’t be possible because, at least according to the SDS Comment Section Brain Trust, Coach Leach was destroying the program in the present and for the foreseeable future with bad recruiting, bad assistant hires, etc.

Oh, wait. Most of these posters are morons.

Leach was an excellent coach, and did a lot to put the State program on a path towards significant and sustained success.

I’m glad he gets more respect on these boards now, but we shouldn’t forget that he was constantly disrespected by many of these same ‘fans’ in life.

State is what State is and let’s put a dose of reality with the predictions. Everyone is undefeated right now and one of the realities is we just don’t know how Arnett will structure the Bulldogs. He may surprise some folks and snatch a win or two that the crystal ball doesn’t see coming.

MAY? Have the last few years not meant anything to you??

Yeah, 8-4 is what I’m feeling right now.

Assuming State wins all 4 non conf games, to get to 8-4 they obviously have to go 4-4. But I’m having a hard time finding 4 SEC wins on their schedule. Their first 3 are tough and could result in an 0-3 SEC start. Let’s say they beat Auburn and KY. Neither is a lock by any means. I can’t see them beating Bama, LSU . Of the other 4, all are winnable I guess but 3 of those are on the road. Also, most first year coaches struggle. Kirby did . Saban did. Arnett prob will too. My prediction is 2-6, 6-6 and a bowl win for 7-6. What’s yours?

Lol ok. So brand new offense, new HC, and very little returning defensive production equals 8 wins to you? Bro you’re wild